Diesel also known as Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) is a versatile energy source that plays a crucial role in various sectors of Nigeria’s economy. It powers heavy-duty machines and generators that provide electricity for homes, businesses, and industries, especially in areas with poor electricity supply. Diesel engines are also used in transportation, agriculture, construction, mining, and emergency services.
While the price of petrol in Nigeria was still being subsidized until 2023, diesel prices were already unregulated in 2003, Therefore, the impact of higher crude oil is immediate and unavoidable. In the last three years, the average price of diesel increased astronomically from N224.37 in June 2020 to N815.83 in June 2023. On the account of this changes, several business have be affected and it has lead to the high cost of production for manufacturers who depend on diesel for production.
Other factors that contributed to the high cost of diesel besides the cost of crude oil are the refining, transportation, distribution, marketing and retailing costs. The high cost of diesel and its impact on both small, medium and large enterprise is a major contributor of inflation in the country.
Average Price and YoY Changes
The average price change of diesel from 2020 to 2023 reveals certain patterns. There was a steady increase in price each year from 2021 to 2023, except for 2020 when the average diesel price dropped by -1.54% compared to 2019. The prices shifted from N248.95 in 2022 to N834.82 in 2023. Notably, the most significant change occurred in 2022, with a 167.04% increase in the average diesel price from N248.95 to N664.81. This change has been attributed to the rise in the price of oil in the global market, as well as the inconsistent power supply encountered in Nigeria and the fall in the value of Naira. In 2023, this trend has persisted, although the price has been relatively less fluctuating compared to 2022, showing only a 25.57% increase from the previous year.
Price across all States & FCT
Price Summary by Month & Year
Average Price Across the Federation
The movement of diesel prices from 2020 to June 2023 on average, follows a observable pattern. First, the average diesel price has shown a consistent increase over this period.
Second, there was a phase of relative stability in the price, observed from June 2020 to February 2021. Following this stability, there was a sustained rise in price, extending all the way to February 2022.
Third, notable fluctuations were experienced in the price of diesel during specific periods. A sharp increase was evident in February 2022, with the price surging from ₦311.98 to ₦539.32. This upward trend continued into March 2022, reaching ₦654.46, and further in April 2022 to ₦774.38 by May. Subsequently, the price underwent a continuous increase, reaching its highest point in May 2023 at ₦844.28.
Price Comparison Across Geopolitical Zone
Price Comparison Across all State & FCT
Year on Year Changes
The year on year changes in diesel prices from 2020 to June 2023 show distinct trends. In much of 2020, there was a decline in the average prices in several months when compared to the same months in 2019. However, in the following years, the pattern shifted towards increasing prices. Notably, in 2022, starting from February, there was a substantial rise, averaging a 176.66% increase compared to the prices in 2021.
Month on Month Changes
The changes in diesel prices from 2020 to June 2023 display specific patterns. The price of diesel declined in most months of the first half of 2020, with the exceptions of March, June, and July, when it increased. The price continued to increase throughout the rest of the year, except in August and September. In 2021 and 2022, there was only one instance of price decline for the entire year, which happened in October (-0.22%) and January (-0.44%), respectively. Following these declines, there was a continuous increase in prices until June 2023, where a decline of -3.37% in price from ₦844.28 May to ₦815.83.
A significant price leap was evident in March 2022, with the month-on-month change increasing from 8.29% in February when price was ₦311.98 to a substantial 72.87% (₦539.32). These fluctuations highlight the shifting dynamics in diesel prices, capturing the various altering patterns over the span of these years.