Kerosene, an essential energy source, holds a pivotal role in Nigeria’s socio-economic landscape. Its significance spans from illuminating households to powering industries, rendering it indispensable for the daily lives of countless Nigerians.
Kerosene’s importance within Nigeria’s energy framework cannot be overstated. Its diverse applications, from lighting to cooking and industrial processes, underscore its critical role in addressing energy demands across sectors. This enduring significance positions it as a cornerstone of energy access for a significant portion of the population. From its role as a lighting source for households and workplaces, particularly in regions with erratic electricity supply, to serving as a primary cooking fuel for those without access to alternatives like LPG (cooking gas), kerosene plays a vital part.
While kerosene’s impact spans various segments of society, it remains a lifeline for the vulnerable population. For many impoverished individuals, it transcends being merely an energy source; it’s a lifeline. As alternatives like LPG become economically out of reach, kerosene’s affordability and accessibility make it an indispensable resource for energy needs. The escalating price of kerosene over the years has catalyzed shifts in energy consumption patterns. As kerosene’s cost surges, individuals formerly dependent on it are driven to seek more economical alternatives like firewood and charcoal. This transition not only affects daily lives but also reshapes the environmental landscape and health considerations.
An intricate analysis of kerosene prices uncovers the interplay of both local and global factors. Domestically, regulatory policies, taxation, and supply chain inefficiencies contribute to local price fluctuations. Conversely, global dynamics encompassing crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions exert influence on the broader energy market, ultimately impacting kerosene costs within Nigeria.
Average LPG Price and YoY Changes
The average prices of kerosene in both liter and gallon measurements have consistently marked an upward trajectory from 2020 to 2023. Particularly noteworthy was the substantial increase observed in 2022, with a staggering YoY rise of 98.31% in liter prices and 95.87% in gallon prices. This rapid escalation experienced a slight slowdown in 2023 when price had approximately 52% increase.
Despite this slowdown in price increase, the distinction in prices between 2020 and subsequent years remains evident. In 2020, the average price was notably different, with a gallon of kerosene commanding a price of ₦1,212.77, while the average for a liter was ₦340.31. This drastic price shift culminated in the current average prices of ₦4,093.65 per gallon and ₦1,178.76 per liter.
Price across all States & FCT
Price Summary by Month & Year
Overall Price Across the Federation
Throughout the period from January 2020 to June 2021, the average price of a liter of kerosene exhibited a relatively stable range, fluctuating between ₦323.66 and ₦370.29. However, a significant shift emerged thereafter, marked by a noticeable price surge. Particularly striking was the decline in price in January 2022, as the cost dwindled from ₦467.97 in the previous month to ₦437.11. This decline was a pivotal point, as it was followed by a sustained upward surge in price, culminating in June 2023 with a price of ₦1,236.10. Notably, another decline was observed in March 2023, highlighting the intricate monthly price dynamics.
The pricing trends for a gallon of kerosene tell a similar story to the trend of a liter kerosene. From February 2022, there was a substantial and consistent increase in price, starting from ₦1,559.78 and progressing all the way to June 2023, reaching a cost of ₦4,269.13. This sharp ascent followed a period where prices had largely remained below the ₦1,300 mark, spanning from January 2020 to August 2021.
Price Comparison Across Geopolitical Zone
Price Comparison Across all State & FCT
Year on Year Changes
Across the selected period, there is a recurring theme of steady price upsurge. This upward trajectory is most pronounced in 2023, where YoY increases average a noteworthy 107.92% compared to previous years. This particular year stands out as a pivotal point, reflecting the accelerating pace of price growth.
For a gallon of kerosene, the YoY changes tell a slightly different story. A slight decrease in price was observed in the first two months of 2021 compared to 2020. The year 2020 experienced a mix of price dynamics, with decreases in the second and third quarters and increases in the first and last quarters of the year.
Month on Month Changes
An exploration of the MoM changes in kerosene prices over the selected years reveals a consistent pattern marked by ongoing price increases, occasionally punctuated by a handful of months where prices experienced reduction.
It’s worth noting that the trajectory of price changes intensified notably for a liter of kerosene starting from March 2022. During this pivotal month, the MoM change witnessed a remarkable 25.27% increase, soaring from ₦450.66 in February to ₦564.55. A parallel trend was observed for a gallon, where the MoM change in March 2022 demonstrated a substantial 28.97% increase, surging from ₦1,559.78 to ₦2,011.70.